Research Project: Inflation Experiences and Expectations (with Francesco D'Acunto and Michael Weber)
Our work: (Not Available Yet) Paper On-line Appendix Slides Data and Code
Project Description: The goal of this project is to better understand how consumers form their inflation expectations and whether their own personal "inflation" experiences affect such expectations. We survey a panel of about 40 thousand consumers and ask them about their inflation expectations. For these consumers we can observe their consumption basket of groceries and packaged goods. Using this information we create different household-level measures of inflation that we contrast with the survey answers. Some of the inflation measures that we create are more "behavioral" and are built to capture the effect of salience of price changes.
Project Progress: We have already conducted two waves of the survey, the first one in July 2015 and the second one in July 2016. This is a long term project that requires the release of the 2015 and 2016 Household Panel Data (HMS) collected by Nielsen and available through the Kilts Center for Marketing at The University of Chicago Booth School of Business. We will present some preliminary results at the AEA meetings in January 2017.