other research projects

These papers were my first research attempts. 

Working Paper: “Modeling and Policy Analysis for the U.S Science Sector” (2010) with Arnold Zellner and Jacques Ngoie.  This project never got to completion due to the passing of the great Arnold Zellner in 2010. However a draft of the paper we had at the time is available here. I am indebted to Prof. Zellner for giving me the opportunity to work with him and encouraging me to undertake my doctoral studies.

Abstract: This paper analyzes the production process of scientific outputs and its further implications on the overall U.S. economy using variants of a disaggregated Marshallian Macroeconomic Model (MMM). In this study, the U.S. science sector is modeled using a one-sector MMM that fits the data and provides reliable forecasts. To this regard, we have added to Jeffrey‟s inputs the traditional economic production inputs such as capital and labor to obtain a production function for scientific production units. Subsequently, we embed science as an additional input and an additional sector of our 17-sector MMM of the overall U.S. economy. In this study, we assume that firms are Bayesian learners while forming expectations about the product price. Throughout a set of policy simulations, this research provides measured information on how selected science policies may affect other sectors of the U.S. economy. Both variants of our MMM have been estimated using advanced econometric techniques such as the transfer functions estimation system

Working Paper: “Central Bank Intervention in the Foreign Exchange Market in Colombia” (2005), Working Paper. This paper is available at Universidad de los Andes.

Abstract:  This paper presents a study on the effectiveness of the Central Bank intervention in the foreign exchange market in Colombia during the free-floating currency regime (1999 – 2005). Two important contributions of this paper are that intervention is analyzed and measured in its material and immaterial forms, and that intervention instruments unexplored in the literature are studied. Through the use of GARCH models Igauge the effect of the intervention both through derivatives and straight purchases/sales on the level and volatility of the exchange rate. The results show that the central bank action has not had significant effects either in the short run or in the long run. If anything, the intervention has increased the volatility and affected the level on an intraday basis only. For the period of discretionary intervention, I find that effectiveness depends on both the size of the intervention and the credibility of the signals sent to themarket. The empirical results are robust to different specifications of the intervention variable. Despite these results, I argue that the intervention must be judged against the broad set of central bank’s objectives, its coherence with the monetary policy, and its effects on the central bank’s credibility.